Latest Election Forecast indicates clear BoJo Victory

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Forecast #GE2019 – 31st October 2019


This is the latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK From ForeCastUK, based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.What does ForeCastUK’s forecast show?ForeCastUK tries to give as much information as possible, but only where it is statistically significant. It shows a confidence interval on the seats and vote shares for the major parties.

What do you use for your forecast?ForeCastUK uses all the latest polling data, where available. It also looks at the betting markets and other information to help guide its forecast. It calculates the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – New polls in the last few days have been included.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election ForeCastUK is able to reduce uncertainity in its model and is able to answer questions like this. Whilst ForeCastUK does not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, it can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

Key Features

The overall summary of ForeCastUK’s forecast is “Conservative Victory”.

ForeCastUK’s forecast shows a strong Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a clear working majority in the Commons. Although support for the Conservatives has fallen since the last forecast, a larger fall in support for Labour means that the overall range for Conservatives seats is at a higher position than before. ForeCastUK’s forecast variance in the Conservative vote share figure illustrates the vast difference between the polling firms in stating the Tory lead and the seat range uncertainty correlates to that.

Forecast UK – National Vote

Date Cons Lab LibDem Brexit
Sep 4, 2019 31.8 20.7 20.9 15.1
Sep 10, 2019 31.5 23.7 20.2 13.5
Sep 12, 2019 30.2 25 19.3 14.3
Sep 17, 2019 30.2 23.3 20.2 15.4
Sep 20, 2019 31.5 21.5 21.3 13.8
Sep 23, 2019 32 21 21.6 12.9
Sep 27, 2019 28.9 21.5 22 15.4
Oct 17, 2019 35.6 22.1 17.8 12.6
Oct 23, 2019 34.5 25.2 18.4 11.4
Oct 28, 2019 36.7 24.4 17.7 10.5
Oct 31, 2019 36 22.3 19.1 11.8

This is ForeCastUK’s first forecast in over a month where it sees support for the Brexit Party rising.

In Scotland the SNP go into the Election period with a strong lead looking to win around 50 seats. Labour is back into third place above the Liberal Democrats, but by a narrow margin. The Liberal Democrats continue to have a clear lead over Labour in terms of seats.

Forecast UK – Scotland Vote Share

Date SNP Con Lab LibDem
Sep 4, 2019 42.2 20.3 15.5 12.3
Sep 10, 2019 41.9 20.2 13.2 14.8
Sep 12, 2019 44 20 11.2 13.8
Sep 17, 2019 42.8 17.8 10.9 14.2
Sep 20, 2019 43.8 21 11.1 12.7
Sep 23, 2019 43.9 25.2 11.1 11
Sep 26, 2019 42 20.1 13.5 12.5
Oct 17, 2019 41.1 20.3 16.8 12.2
Oct 23, 2019 41.5 21.6 14.3 13.8
Oct 28, 2019 41.2 24.7 12.4 15.1
Oct 31, 2019 43.2 23 13.1 12.8

The Conservatives continue to evidence strong support in Wales and it is now showing a strong likelihood of them winning a clear majority of seats. This is ForeCastUK’s most volatile forecast with small subsamples to work on, but across numerous opinion polls the Conservative lead over Labour is clear to see.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point during the summer.

UK Forecast

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2017
 Conservatives 36.0% (32.5% – 39.5%) 358 – 367 +41 to +52
 Labour 22.3% (20.2% – 24.4%) 167 – 191 -95 to -71
 SNP 3.7% 49 – 52 +14 to +17
Liberal Democrats 19.1% (17.7% – 20.5%) 26 – 38 +14 to +26
Brexit Party 11.8% (10.4% – 13.2%) 0 – 5 – to +5
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 3 – 5 -1 to +1
Green 3.3% (2.2% – 4.4%) 0 -2 -1 to +1
Independent 0-2
Speaker 1  –
Northern Ireland 18

Most likely result – Conservative Majority

Scotland

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2017
SNP 43.2% 49 – 52 +14 to +17
Conservatives 23.0% 1 – 7 -12 to -6
Liberal Democrats 12.8% 3 – 5 -1 to +1
Labour 13.1% 0 – 2 -7 to -5
Brexit Party 5.5%
Greens 2.4%

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2017
Conservatives 32.4% 15 – 24 +7 to +16
Labour 23.3% 8 – 20 -20 to -8
Liberal Democrats 21.5% 1 – 4 +1 to +4
Plaid Cymru 11.5% 3 – 5 -1 to +1
Brexit Party 9.9%
Greens 1.4%

Most Likely Result – Conservative Majority of Seats

London

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2017
Labour 33.5% 38 – 41 -11 to -8
Conservatives 30.1% 26 – 29 +5 to +8
Liberal Democrats 23.6% 5 – 7 +2 to +4
Brexit Party 8.2%
Greens 4.6%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2017
DUP 29.1% 8 – 10 -2 to 0
Sinn Fein 25.0% 5 – 7 -2 to 0
Alliance 24.1% 1 – 3 +1 to +3
UUP 9.1% 0 – 2 0 to +2
SDLP 8.0% 0
Independent 1

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality

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