Forecast #GE2019 – 31st October 2019
What do you use for your forecast? – ForeCastUK uses all the latest polling data, where available. It also looks at the betting markets and other information to help guide its forecast. It calculates the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
What has changed since the last forecast? – New polls in the last few days have been included.
What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election ForeCastUK is able to reduce uncertainity in its model and is able to answer questions like this. Whilst ForeCastUK does not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, it can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.
Key Features
The overall summary of ForeCastUK’s forecast is “Conservative Victory”.
ForeCastUK’s forecast shows a strong Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a clear working majority in the Commons. Although support for the Conservatives has fallen since the last forecast, a larger fall in support for Labour means that the overall range for Conservatives seats is at a higher position than before. ForeCastUK’s forecast variance in the Conservative vote share figure illustrates the vast difference between the polling firms in stating the Tory lead and the seat range uncertainty correlates to that.
Forecast UK – National Vote
| Date | Cons | Lab | LibDem | Brexit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2019 | 31.8 | 20.7 | 20.9 | 15.1 |
| Sep 10, 2019 | 31.5 | 23.7 | 20.2 | 13.5 |
| Sep 12, 2019 | 30.2 | 25 | 19.3 | 14.3 |
| Sep 17, 2019 | 30.2 | 23.3 | 20.2 | 15.4 |
| Sep 20, 2019 | 31.5 | 21.5 | 21.3 | 13.8 |
| Sep 23, 2019 | 32 | 21 | 21.6 | 12.9 |
| Sep 27, 2019 | 28.9 | 21.5 | 22 | 15.4 |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 35.6 | 22.1 | 17.8 | 12.6 |
| Oct 23, 2019 | 34.5 | 25.2 | 18.4 | 11.4 |
| Oct 28, 2019 | 36.7 | 24.4 | 17.7 | 10.5 |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 36 | 22.3 | 19.1 | 11.8 |
This is ForeCastUK’s first forecast in over a month where it sees support for the Brexit Party rising.
In Scotland the SNP go into the Election period with a strong lead looking to win around 50 seats. Labour is back into third place above the Liberal Democrats, but by a narrow margin. The Liberal Democrats continue to have a clear lead over Labour in terms of seats.
Forecast UK – Scotland Vote Share
| Date | SNP | Con | Lab | LibDem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2019 | 42.2 | 20.3 | 15.5 | 12.3 |
| Sep 10, 2019 | 41.9 | 20.2 | 13.2 | 14.8 |
| Sep 12, 2019 | 44 | 20 | 11.2 | 13.8 |
| Sep 17, 2019 | 42.8 | 17.8 | 10.9 | 14.2 |
| Sep 20, 2019 | 43.8 | 21 | 11.1 | 12.7 |
| Sep 23, 2019 | 43.9 | 25.2 | 11.1 | 11 |
| Sep 26, 2019 | 42 | 20.1 | 13.5 | 12.5 |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 41.1 | 20.3 | 16.8 | 12.2 |
| Oct 23, 2019 | 41.5 | 21.6 | 14.3 | 13.8 |
| Oct 28, 2019 | 41.2 | 24.7 | 12.4 | 15.1 |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 43.2 | 23 | 13.1 | 12.8 |
The Conservatives continue to evidence strong support in Wales and it is now showing a strong likelihood of them winning a clear majority of seats. This is ForeCastUK’s most volatile forecast with small subsamples to work on, but across numerous opinion polls the Conservative lead over Labour is clear to see.
Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point during the summer.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 36.0% (32.5% – 39.5%) | 358 – 367 | +41 to +52 |
| Labour | 22.3% (20.2% – 24.4%) | 167 – 191 | -95 to -71 |
| SNP | 3.7% | 49 – 52 | +14 to +17 |
| Liberal Democrats | 19.1% (17.7% – 20.5%) | 26 – 38 | +14 to +26 |
| Brexit Party | 11.8% (10.4% – 13.2%) | 0 – 5 | – to +5 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.6% | 3 – 5 | -1 to +1 |
| Green | 3.3% (2.2% – 4.4%) | 0 -2 | -1 to +1 |
| Independent | 0-2 | ||
| Speaker | 1 | – | |
| Northern Ireland | 18 |
Most likely result – Conservative Majority
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 43.2% | 49 – 52 | +14 to +17 |
| Conservatives | 23.0% | 1 – 7 | -12 to -6 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12.8% | 3 – 5 | -1 to +1 |
| Labour | 13.1% | 0 – 2 | -7 to -5 |
| Brexit Party | 5.5% | ||
| Greens | 2.4% |
Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 32.4% | 15 – 24 | +7 to +16 |
| Labour | 23.3% | 8 – 20 | -20 to -8 |
| Liberal Democrats | 21.5% | 1 – 4 | +1 to +4 |
| Plaid Cymru | 11.5% | 3 – 5 | -1 to +1 |
| Brexit Party | 9.9% | ||
| Greens | 1.4% |
Most Likely Result – Conservative Majority of Seats
London
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 33.5% | 38 – 41 | -11 to -8 |
| Conservatives | 30.1% | 26 – 29 | +5 to +8 |
| Liberal Democrats | 23.6% | 5 – 7 | +2 to +4 |
| Brexit Party | 8.2% | ||
| Greens | 4.6% |
We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUP | 29.1% | 8 – 10 | -2 to 0 |
| Sinn Fein | 25.0% | 5 – 7 | -2 to 0 |
| Alliance | 24.1% | 1 – 3 | +1 to +3 |
| UUP | 9.1% | 0 – 2 | 0 to +2 |
| SDLP | 8.0% | 0 | – |
| Independent | 1 | – |
Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality
