What is the REAL truth about the UK economy since the referendum?

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James Faulkner

In May 2016, then-Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne told us that “a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy.” According to analysis from HM Treasury, that shock “would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise compared with a vote to remain.”

This was the Treasury’s assessment of the short-term impact of the vote – i.e. after the vote, but before we actually left the EU. The long-term economic impact of leaving had been set out in five weeks prior in another document, which predicted that “Britain would be permanently poorer by the equivalent of £4,300 per household by 2030 and every year thereafter.”

But how has the UK economy actually performed since the vote to leave?

Growth

It is true that UK GDP growth has slowed since the crisis, although a recession (classed as two or more successive quarters of negative growth) has failed to materialise. According to statistics from the ONS, the UK economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.5% in the third quarter of 2018. Such a rate of growth is relatively pedestrian when set against the UK’s long-term average of around 2.5%, and it also puts the UK towards the bottom end of the growth league of the G7 industrialised nations. Prior to the referendum in the years 2013-2016, UK growth was among the strongest in the G7.

Real Wages

The Treasury predicted that average real wages would be 2.8-4% lower by 2018. In fact, real wages have hardly budged since the time of the referendum, although real wage growth did turn negative for a while in 2017 as inflation – driven higher by the devaluation of the pound since the Brexit vote – outstripped nominal earnings growth. Real wages have recently begun to rise again after UK wage growth rose to its fastest pace in nearly 10 years in the three months to August. Pay rose by 3.1% in the three months to August, compared with a year ago, while inflation for the same period was 2.5%.

Unemployment

Unemployment is one area of economic performance where the reality stands in stark contrast to the Treasury’s predictions before the Brexit vote. The Treasury expected a Leave vote to lead to an increase in unemployment of between 520,000 and 820,000, adding 1.6-2.4 percentage points to the official unemployment rate. However, unemployment has actually continued to fall since the vote, from 5% in June-August 2016 to a current reading of just 4.1%, reducing the number of unemployed people by around 400,000.

The pound

Prior to the Brexit referendum the pound was trading at 1.44 against the dollar. At time of writing, it is currently trading at 1.27, giving a fall of just under 12% – almost exactly in-line with Treasury analysis before the vote. Whilst this has obviously been a significant contributor to the rise in inflation over the past couple of years (as foreign goods have become more expensive to UK consumers), it has also helped to propel UK exports to new highs (as UK products become cheaper overseas). Overall, UK exports of goods and services are now at a record high.

Inflation

Inflation has risen sharply since the referendum, from 0.4% in June 2016 to a five-year high of 3.1% in November 2017. However, it has since fallen back to 2.3% (November 2018). Once again, the 2.7% spike from June 2016 to November 2017 was almost in line with Treasury forecasts. The future trajectory of inflation will depend on what kind of deal (if any) the UK agrees with the EU and how its trade relations with the rest of the world develop post-Brexit. For example, while it is expected that tariffs will make goods imported from the EU more expensive to UK consumers, the potential reduction or elimination of tariffs on goods imported from non-EU countries could reduce UK prices for the latter.

House prices

According to research from estate agent Emoov, average monthly house price growth since the referendum is 0.26%, slower than the 0.33% a month on average in the months following the economic crash of 2007 while prices recovered to their pre-crash peak. Although the Brexit vote appears to have slowed the rate of house price inflation, this is a far cry from the Treasury’s predictions of a 10% fall. However, some regions have been impacted more than others, with central London seeing large falls as foreign buyers reappraise their UK exposure.

Public borrowing

The UK budget deficit – the amount the government has to borrow in order to make ends meet – has continued to fall despite the vote to leave the EU. From £75.5 billion in 2015/16, the deficit fell to £47.1 billion in 2016/17 and £40.7 billion in 2017/18. It is forecast to fall again, to £25.5 billion, in 2018/19. Treasury predictions envisaged an extra £24 billion in borrowing for the 2017/18 fiscal year. While it is impossible to know the path that the deficit would have taken in the event of a vote to remain, the fact that the deficit has continued to fall – in spite of less fiscal restraint on the part of Chancellor Hammond versus his predecessor, George Osborne – suggests that the fiscal impact of Brexit, up to now at least, has been relatively muted.

6 COMMENTS

  1. With all the doom and gloom our pro Remainer politicians have been spreading it really is encouraging to see the economy of the UK bucking the forecasts of supossed economic experts. It just goes to show that the UK economy could very well boom given a little encouragement. Unfortunately with the globalist agenda pushed on by the Rothchilds and their agent George Soros who incidentally own not only the EU but every major bank on planet earth and with an estimated family wealth of over £500 Trillion power is now their main aim.

  2. You talk a load of balls like the mps of this county true things will change for a while but it will get better if you want the eu to rule this county then you stay in me no and it will happen if we stay in

  3. 1:) All Brits fall on quick and extreme advertising on Brexit by some of few politicians in the parliament (beginning with Farage former of UKIP which was supported by “sweet” money). Who wanted Great Britain all for their own? That’s the result of a short decision without a long term result impact. I’m from Slovenia btw and this is my point of view of conspiracy that began in 2014. Data gathered from Wikipedia. After all, then become project fear to keep the project Brexit continue and even more negative.
    2:) A lot of websites that promote Brexit are Clickbait tested by Malwarebytes like http://www.thesun.co.uk, http://www.express.co.uk, http://www.globalresearch.ca, and http://www.dailymail.co.uk. No to mention BOTS operating by Russian that impact even the election of Donald Trump. Clickbait is content whose main purpose is to attract attention and deceive visitors into clicking on a hyperlink to a particular web page. Clickbait often leads to the content of questionable value.
    3:) Conclusion, the plots were made by Boris (promoting biased information’s with his red bus), Theresa (insisting the benefits without exposing the reality) and etc. by corrupted data and some corrupted members of parliaments and media who were supported by UKIP and “sweet money” by just seeking the power of interests without worries of the nation. All is about power and money for such elites. I consider you to search Wikipedia and check Fact about Brexit https://youtu.be/UYonSZ8s3_o
    That is the most independent and accruable source on the internet.

    Brexit explain https://youtu.be/EpYrclfgX2I
    Why Brexit happens: https://youtu.be/dcwuBo4PvE0
    False information https://youtu.be/zgkF23nFIBw
    Brexit Objectively https://youtu.be/4QMw3qSQrZo
    History of UK https://youtu.be/vrykQAuNyZM
    End of EU part 1 https://youtu.be/S9VNX4FOIGc
    End of EU part 2 https://youtu.be/s3pqplqc-zw
    Dangerous of Brexit https://youtu.be/Jf-qGNxl1r8
    Please check the video and share it if you want to know the truth https://youtu.be/CNYPJc-GijQ
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/13/dark-money-hard-brexit-targeted-ads-facebook#comment-125828236
    http://fortune.com/2017/11/15/russia-twitter-bots-influence-brexit/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-share-article&utm_content=20190306&fbclid=IwAR2VvTwmInM7XM1dMjLv6oxSxv-YoUrqacUhLb-6-ryG1X7tUWcr3yR1JX8

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