Latest election forecast reveals potential shock outcome

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This is the latest forecast for a potential November 2019 General Election in the UK produced by Forecastuk. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

Key Features

The overall summary of the latest forecast from ForecastUK.org.uk is “Hung Parliament”.

After the dramatic events of the past 48 hours, the latest forecast from ForecastUK includes two new polls from ComRes and Survation and changes in market sentiment. As expected, the Conservative position has weakened significantly but it is worth noting that the swing in Conservative Labour marginals since the last forecast is primarily driven by this drop in Conservative support and not an increase in support for Labour.

What does the forecast show? –ForecastUK tries to give as much information as possible, but only where it is statistically significant. We show a confidence interval on the seats and vote shares for the major parties.

What do you use for your forecast?  ForecastUK uses all the latest polling data, where available. It also looks at the betting markets and other information to help guide its forecast. It calculates the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast?New polls from ComRes poll and Opinium have been included.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election, the uncertainity in the model is reduced. Whilst ForecastUK does not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, it can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

Our forecast continues to show the Liberal Democrats polling more votes across the country than Labour. There is now good evidence that the increase in support over the past seven days was not just a short term conference bounce but rather reflects a concrete change in public opinion with Remain voters moving to the Liberal Democrats. In contrast to this, there is no evidence of a Labour post conference bounce.

In Scotland we expect the SNP to regain almost all their losses in 2017 to Labour and the Conservatives.

The Conservatives continue to evidence strong support in Wales. We have slightly better Welsh data for this forecast so are more confident that if an election were held today it would lead to a tight struggle between the two main parties for a plurality of seats and votes. It is not inconcivable that one party could lead the other by a number of percentage points in the vote, but have significantly fewer Welsh seats.

This last point is a key factor in our whole forecast – with vote shares being so dramatically different to the last election, traditional methods of “swinging” party support may not give an accurate forecast for seats. In particular, the impact of Brexit Party support may affect many constituencies.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point last month.

UK Forecast

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2017
 Conservatives 28.9% (24.8% – 33.0%) 298 – 309 -19 to -8
 Labour 21.5% (19.5% – 23.5%) 219 – 222 -43 to -40
 SNP 3.5% 49 – 50 +14 to +15
Liberal Democrats 22.0% (19.6% – 24.4%) 44 – 54 +32 to +42
Brexit Party 15.4% (13.5% – 17.3%) 1 – 5 +1 to +5
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 3 – 4 -1 to 0
Green 5.0% (4.5% – 5.5%) 0 -2 -1 to +1
Independent 0-2
Speaker 1  –
Northern Ireland 18

Most likely result – Hung Parliament

Scotland

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2017
SNP 42.0% 49 – 50 +14 to +15
Conservatives 20.1% 3 – 5 -10 to -8
Liberal Democrats 12.5% 4 – 5 0 to +1
Labour 13.5% 0 – 2 -7 to -5
Brexit Party 9.8%
Greens 2.0%

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2017
Labour 24.3% 17 – 18 -11 to -10
Conservatives 28.6% 16 – 18 +8 to +10
Liberal Democrats 20.3% 1 – 2 +1 to +2
Plaid Cymru 9.3% 3 – 5 -1 to +1
Brexit Party 15.0%
Greens 2.3%

Most Likely Result – Labour Plurality of Seats

London

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2017
Labour 32.9% 43 – 44 -3 to -2
Conservatives 23.5% 20 – 22 -1 to +1
Liberal Democrats 27.4% 8 – 9 +5 to +6
Brexit Party 9.1%
Greens 6.6%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2017
DUP 29.1% 8 – 10 -2 to 0
Sinn Fein 25.0% 5 – 7 -2 to 0
Alliance 24.1% 1 – 3 +1 to +3
UUP 9.1% 0 – 2 0 to +2
SDLP 8.0% 0
Independent 1

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality

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