Latest Election Forecast as Boris gets his deal agreed

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Forecast for a 2019 General Election


This is the latest forecast for a potential November or December 2019 General Election in the UK. As the Brexit process appears to near a conclusion, ForecastUK publishes its latest forecast based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast (17th October 2019).

Key Features

The overall summary of the ForecastUK forecast is a “Conservative Victory”. Recent polling (including large sample polling in Wales and Scotland) indicates a resurgent Conservative Party as the Liberal Democrats fall back from their previous highs.

What does the forecast show?ForecastUK tries to give as much information as possible, but only where it is statistically significant. It shows a confidence interval on the seats and vote shares for the major parties.What do you use for your forecast?ForecastUK uses all the latest polling data, where available. It also looks at the betting markets and other information to help guide its forecast. It calculates the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then uses this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.What has changed since the last forecast?New polls from ComRes poll and Opinium have been included.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in the ForecastUK model and is able to answer questions like this. Whilst ForecastUK does not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, it can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

Date Cons Lab LibDem Brexit
Sep 4, 2019 31.8 20.7 20.9 15.1
Sep 10, 2019 31.5 23.7 20.2 13.5
Sep 12, 2019 30.2 25 19.3 14.3
Sep 17, 2019 30.2 23.3 20.2 15.4
Sep 20, 2019 31.5 21.5 21.3 13.8
Sep 23, 2019 32 21 21.6 12.9
Sep 27, 2019 28.9 21.5 22 15.4
Oct 17, 2019 35.6 22.1 17.8 12.6

ForecastUK’s forecast shows a large Conservative lead over Labour, both in votes and seats. It sees evidence of votes moving from the Brexit Party to the Conservatives as Leave electors consolidate around Boris Johnson.

In Scotland ForecastUK expects the SNP to regain almost all its losses in 2017 to Labour and the Conservatives.

The Conservatives continue to evidence of strong support in Wales. With a large sample YouGov poll to add to other data, it is clear that were an election to happen today Labour could not be guaranteed to win a majority of seats and would more than likely be pushed into second place on votes.

Meanwhile, ForecastUK’s Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point during the summer.

UK Forecast

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2017
 Conservatives 35.8% (33.8% – 37.8%) 359 – 363 +42 to +46
 Labour 22.1% (20.8% – 23.4%) 181 – 185 -81 to -77
 SNP 3.4% 49 – 51 +14 to +16
Liberal Democrats 17.8% (16.8% – 18.8%) 30 – 31 +18 to +19
Brexit Party 12.6% (12.2% – 13.0%) 1 – 3 +1 to +3
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 3 – 5 -1 to +1
Green 4.4% (4.0% – 4.8%) 0 -2 -1 to +1
Independent 0-2
Speaker 1  –
Northern Ireland 18

Most likely result – Conservative Majority

Scotland

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2017
SNP 41.1% 49 – 51 +14 to +16
Conservatives 20.3% 3 – 4 -10 to -9
Liberal Democrats 12.2% 4 – 5 0 to +1
Labour 16.8% 0 – 2 -7 to -5
Brexit Party 6.9%
Greens 2.3%

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2017
Conservatives 29.4% 17 – 18 +9 to +10
Labour 24.9% 16 – 18 -12 to -10
Liberal Democrats 15.9% 1 – 2 +1 to +2
Plaid Cymru 13.0% 3 – 5 -1 to +1
Brexit Party 13.5%
Greens 3.2%

Most Likely Result – Conservative Plurality of Seats

London

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2017
Labour 30.9% 35 – 36 -11 to -10
Conservatives 33.3% 31 – 32 +10 to +11
Liberal Democrats 22.7% 5 – 7 +2 to +4
Brexit Party 7.6%
Greens 5.1%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Plurality of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2017
DUP 29.1% 8 – 10 -2 to 0
Sinn Fein 25.0% 5 – 7 -2 to 0
Alliance 24.1% 1 – 3 +1 to +3
UUP 9.1% 0 – 2 0 to +2
SDLP 8.0% 0
Independent 1

Most Likely Result – DUP Pluralit

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