Latest election forecast reveals potential shock outcome

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This is the latest forecast for a potential November 2019 General Election in the UK produced by Forecastuk.org.uk It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We try to give as much information as possible, but only where it is statistically significant. We show a confidence interval on the seats and vote shares for the major parties.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – New polls from ComRes poll and Opinium have been included.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Narrow Conservative Majority”.

Our updated forecast continues to see support rise for the Conservatives and the swing from Labour to the Liberal Democrats from Remain voters impacts upon the former’s seats allowing the Conservatives to pick up an extra ten or more seats from our last forecast.

With the Labour vote continuing to slip away, we expect major losses if an election was held next month. Outside of London where Labour losses should be kept to a minimum, we expect over 50 seats to be lost to various parties, including almost 40 to the Conservatives. This correlates with recent polling showing that Jeremy Corbyn is unpopular in almost all segments of the population.

As a contrast we expect a resurgent Liberal Democrat party to win over half of the seats where they were second to the Conservatives in 2017. There is the possibility as Remain Labour voters transfer to the Liberal Democrats, that seats where in 2017 the Liberal Democrats slipped into third place they may even win outright in 2019. Key likely targets here are Portsmouth South (67.6% chance of Liberal Democrat win) and Burnley (50.8% chance of Liberal Democrat win).

In Scotland we expect the SNP to regain almost all their losses in 2017 to Labour and the Conservatives.

The Conservatives continue to evidence strong support in Wales.

As we anticipated, new polls indicating movement in support from Labour to the Liberal Democrats has increased the confidence interval on both parties’ final vote position.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point last month.

UK Forecast

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2017
 Conservatives 31.5% (27.9% – 35.2%) 322 – 328 +5 to +11
 Labour 21.5% (19.3% – 23.7%) 209 – 212 -53 to -50
 SNP 3.6% 49 – 51 +14 to +16
Liberal Democrats 21.3% (17.9% – 24.7%) 35 – 44 +23 to +32
Brexit Party 13.8% (12.3% – 15.3%) 1 – 3 +1 to +3
Plaid Cymru 0.3% 2 – 4 -2 to 0
Green 4.7% (3.3% – 6.1%) 0 -2 -1 to +1
Independent 0-2
Speaker 1  –
Northern Ireland 18

Most likely result – Narrow Conservative Victory

Scotland

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2017
SNP 43.8% 49 – 51 +14 to +16
Conservatives 21.0% 3 – 5 -10 to -8
Liberal Democrats 12.7% 3 – 5 -1 to +1
Labour 11.1% 0 – 2 -7 to -5
Brexit Party 8.4%
Greens 2.9%

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2017
Labour 29.6% 23 – 24 -5 to -4
Conservatives 23.6% 11 – 12 +3 to +4
Liberal Democrats 18.9% 1 – 3 +1 to +3
Plaid Cymru 5.8% 2 – 4 -2 to 0
Brexit Party 15.8%
Greens 6.1%

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

London

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2017
Labour 36.3% 43 – 44 -3 to -2
Conservatives 25.0% 21 – 22 0 to +1
Liberal Democrats 28.9% 7 – 9 +4 to +6
Brexit Party 6.0%
Greens 3.4%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party % Vote Forecast Changes on 2017
DUP 29.1% 8 – 10 -2 to 0
Sinn Fein 25.0% 5 – 7 -2 to 0
Alliance 24.1% 1 – 3 +1 to +3
UUP 9.1% 0 – 2 0 to +2
SDLP 8.0% 0
Independent 1

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality

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